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These WINKS statistics tutorials explain the use and interpretation of standard statistical analysis techniques for Medical, Pharmaceutical, Clinical Trials, Marketing or Scientific Research. The examples include how-to instructions for WINKS SDA Version 6.0 Software. Download evaluation copy of WINKS.


Time Series Tutorial

This tutorial illustrates how to model parameters for an ARMA Time Series and to create a forecast using WINKS SDA (Version 6.09 and later)

Estimate Parameters

Step 1: Open the time series data file. For this example, open SUN.SDA.

Step 2: Select Analyze -> Time Series -> Model Data. Select COUNT as the variable to analyze.

Step 3: In the dialog box section titled “Model the Data” enter a 3 in the “P” text box to specify that you want to model the data as an ARMA(3,0), and click Calculate.

The following information is reported:

   Series Length =  176


   Estimated parameters for P = 3 and Q = 0


   Burg/Tiao/Tsay AR Estimates


   Estimated Burg/Tiao/Tsay AR Parameters:

    1) 1.266145           2) -0.498998

    3) -0.112711


   White Noise Variance  = 232.8768

   AIC                   = 965.2897

   AR Factors for Burg-Tsay Estimates


   .9860 ± .6436i    0.8493       0.0920     1 - 1.422B + 0.721B^2

   -6.3993           0.1563       0.5000     1 + 0.156B


Step 4: Click “Data View” to see the results – which includes spectrum and residuals.



Once you have the estimates of a model, you can use this information to create a forecast. SDA will allow you to use your model to forecast future values of the series. An optional 95% confidence bound may be plotted for your estimated forecast. 

Step 5: Select Analyze -> Time Series -> Forecast. Choose COUNT as the variable to forecast. The following dialog box appears:

 Dialog Box Time Series


At the bottom of the dialog box, select how you want to forecast. In this case select “Beyond Series N= 20.” Click Calculate. A forecast summary is reported for the model indicated.

Forecast data is based on the following information


   Forecast 20 steps beyond series.

   Series Length =  176

   Differenced =  0

   Estimated parameters for p = 3 and q = 0


   AR Parameters:

    1) 1.266145           2) -0.498998

    3) -0.112711


   Estimated WNV =  232.876837617018

    Forecast Summary...


   COUNT       LOWER       UPPER      FORECAST     SERIES         PSI

      1         80.9        80.9        80.9        80.9      1.2661

      2         83.4        83.4        83.4        83.4      1.1041

      3         47.7        47.7        47.7        47.7      0.6535

      4         47.8        47.8        47.8        47.8      0.1337

      5         30.7        30.7        30.7        30.7     -0.2812

Step 6: Click on “Data View.” The WINKS Data sheet contains columns for the forecast and upper and lower confidence levels.

Step 7: To plot the results, select Graph/Charts -> Line/Time Series Plots -> Overlay. Specify Lower, Upper and Forecast (in that order) to plot. The following plot appears indicating the original data, a forecast, and upper and lower limits for the forecast.


This procedure is available in the WINKS Professional edition.


For more information... we recommend:

  • WINKS -- a simple to use and affordable statistical software program that will help you analyze, interpret and write-up your results. Download a free trial copy.
  • Additional statistics tutorials.
  • Against All Odds VIDEOS - Now in VHS or DVD formats Teaching Videos from Annenberg/PBS Click here for info
  • BeSmartNotes Reference sheets for SAS, SAS ODS, SPSS and WINKS  - Click here for info.
  • Statistical Analysis Quick Reference Guidebook: With SPSS Examples is a practical "cut to the chase" handbook that quickly explains the when, where, and how of statistical data analysis as it is used for real-world decision-making in a wide variety of disciplines. It contains examples using SPSS Statistics software. In this one-stop reference, the authors  provide succinct guidelines for performing an analysis, avoiding pitfalls, interpreting results, and reporting outcomes. Paperback.Sage Publishers ISBN: 1412925606 Order book from Amazon


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